Trump’s 100% tariffs: Which Indian pharma stocks are most vulnerable? Explained

US President Donald Trump’s determination to enforce 100% tariffs connected branded and patented pharmaceutical exports has rattled Indian pharma stocks, adjacent though astir companies gain from US markets by selling generic drugs.For Indian pharmaceutical exports, the US represents the superior market, comprising astir 35% of full exports, with a worth reaching astir $10 cardinal successful FY25.This improvement caused a antagonistic interaction connected banal prices, with large pharmaceutical companies similar Sun Pharma, Cipla, and Dr. Reddy's seeing declines of up to 5%.Experts are evaluating imaginable interaction connected companies deriving 30-47% of their gross from US operations, peculiarly if Trump's tariff argumentation expands to see analyzable generics and specialty medicines."President Trump's tantrums with tariffs are resuming with caller tariff imposts connected patented and branded drugs," said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist astatine Geojit Investments Limited. "India, being an exporter of generic drugs, is improbable to beryllium impacted by this. But possibly the president's adjacent people tin beryllium generic drugs.""While the tariff chiefly targets branded drugs, determination is ambiguity implicit whether analyzable generics and specialty medicines mightiness besides beryllium affected," warned Maitri Sheth from Choice Institutional Equities, according to an ET report.

"However, firms with manufacturing plants nether operation successful the US volition beryllium exempt, offering an accidental to mitigate tariff exposure.""Predominantly, Sun Pharma seems to beryllium astir impacted. Dr Reddy's volition besides beryllium impacted. The bulk of the players are into generics. The interaction connected branded generics is not precise clear," Sunny Agarwal of SBI Securities told ET.

Trump’s 100% tariffs connected pharma: Which stocks are the astir exposed?

Dr. Reddy's shows important hazard exposure, with 47% of its net coming from the US market, the highest amongst its competitors, according to the ET report.

Nomura projects the company's US net to scope $1.5 cardinal successful FY26, making it peculiarly susceptible to immoderate tariff modifications."Products manufactured successful the US should lend little than 15% to FY27F revenues," Nomura noted, indicating that astir of DRL's US concern remains susceptible to imaginable tariff changes. Only circumstantial items similar gSuboxone, produced wrong the US, person immoderate safeguarding.Sun Pharma faces sizeable hazard with 37% US marketplace dependence, putting $2.1-2.3 cardinal of FY26 net astatine stake. Their superior interest lies successful "Specialty brands relationship for 55–57% of revenues," arsenic per Nomura, with simply 10% of US specialty products manufactured locally.Their flagship product, Ilumya, produced extracurricular the US, presumably successful Ireland, faces nonstop vulnerability to Trump's projected policies. Nevertheless, Nomura's probe suggests that "since Ilumya is simply a chronic therapy, Sun whitethorn beryllium capable to walk connected the interaction of tariffs and clasp existing volumes."Sun Pharma's banal declined by up to 5% to scope a caller 52-week debased of Rs 1,547.25 connected the BSE.With astir 30% of gross linked to the US market, projected astatine $900-950 cardinal for FY26/27, Cipla stands arsenic comparatively protected. Their Invagen facilities successful the US make 25-30% of US earnings, offering a grade of insulation against imaginable tariffs."The institution is expanding its US manufacturing station regulatory issues astatine Indian sites," which could supply further extortion against aboriginal tariff increases.Various pharmaceutical companies amusement antithetic levels of vulnerability. Lupin anticipates US revenues of $1.1 cardinal successful FY26, with their US manufacturing facilities contributing $70-80 million, representing 6-7% of full earnings, arsenic stated by the organisation.For Zydus Lifesciences, the concern appears much concerning, with projected US revenues of $1.3 cardinal successful FY26/27 and minimal US-based production.

"Given the precocious dependence of US revenues, we expect the net interaction tin beryllium precocious successful lawsuit the institution were to sorb the interaction of tariffs," according to analysts.Aurobindo Pharma, starring Indian generic shaper with US income reaching $1.6 cardinal successful CY2024, operates 3 US facilities, though their output remains modest. The institution projects imaginable oral dosage accumulation summation to 12-15 cardinal units, perchance serving one-third of US sales.Despite establishing a manufacturing installation successful Monroe, Glenmark presently receives nary publication from this tract owed to an progressive informing letter. Their US gross projections basal astatine $393-461 cardinal for FY26/27.Gland Pharma maintains a stronger presumption amongst generic manufacturers, with projected US revenues of $372-393 cardinal for FY26/27. The injectable conception experiences little competition, with the company's main rivals being Chinese manufacturers who are expected to brushwood higher tariff rates.For Alkem, with anticipated US revenues of $336-372 cardinal successful FY26/27 and India-based proviso chain, challenges loom ahead. "The institution whitethorn beryllium impacted if the tariff is not passed connected to customers," considering its constricted operational standard and lack of vertical integration.Torrent Pharma shows minimal US marketplace presence, projecting revenues of $141-156 cardinal successful FY26/27. "Given the tiny standard of operations and a deficiency of differentiating products, the profitability of its US operations is low," raising concerns astir its US marketplace viability nether expanded tariffs.According to ICICI Securities' Pankaj Pandey, "near-term interaction of the tariffs is apt to beryllium limited, arsenic India chiefly exports generics." He further states: "Uncertainty inactive remains implicit whether analyzable generics and biosimilars volition travel nether the tariff embargo successful the future."A imaginable flight way exists done Trump's exemption proviso - organisations that person "broken crushed connected gathering a manufacturing works successful the United States" tin debar the 100% duty.

However, companies maintaining Indian manufacturing facilities look important net risks from October 1.With pharmaceutical shares anticipated to diminution successful upcoming sessions, investors await clarification regarding whether Trump's tariff measures volition widen beyond branded medications to impact the full $10 cardinal Indian pharmaceutical export sector.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views connected the banal marketplace and different plus classes fixed by experts are their own. These opinions bash not correspond the views of The Times of India)