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NEW DELHI: Exit canvass projections for Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) person thrown up 1 of the astir intriguing questions of the 2026 Tamil Nadu elections: is Vijay connected the cusp of a breakthrough similar Arvind Kejriwal successful Delhi, oregon volition helium lucifer Prashant Kishor's Bihar experimentation that ended successful 'arsh se farsh par'.The answer, astatine slightest today, depends connected which exit canvass 1 chooses to believe.Most projections spot TVK successful the 10–24 spot range, a important debut. According to astir pollsters Vijay's enactment volition beryllium 1 that positions it arsenic a spoiler alternatively than a main contender. P-Marq and Matrize projected 10–12 seats for TVK, portion Peoples Pulse gives it a stronger 18–24, suggesting meaningful traction among municipality and younker voters. In this scenario, Vijay’s enactment could extremity up splitting anti-incumbent votes, indirectly aiding the DMK.
But past comes the outlier.Axis MyIndia projected a melodramatic surge, giving TVK 98–120 seats - numbers that, if turned into world connected May 4, would catapult Vijay into the centre of Tamil Nadu authorities overnight. That would spot him successful Kejriwal territory: a first-time entrant not conscionable breaking through, but becoming the centre of authorities politics.
And Vijay besides has his superstar Thalaivar representation - thing that has worked successful Tamil Nadu for years with the emergence of MG Ramachandran and the J Jayalalithaa.However, dissimilar Delhi successful 2013, wherever Kejriwal rode a singular anti-corruption wave, Tamil Nadu's contention is layered, entrenched successful Dravidian politics, beardown enactment machinery, and decaded-old elector loyalties. Even a beardown showing for TVK does not automatically construe into powerfulness unless it converts popularity into booth-level efficiency, an country wherever established players similar the DMK and AIADMK clasp a wide edge.However, if these exit polls crook retired to beryllium incorrect connected May 4, and Vijay's expansive governmental debut becomes a flop show, it would beryllium akin to what we saw past twelvemonth successful Bihar.While determination was overmuch treatment astir governmental mastermind Prashant Kishor's debut, his Jan Suraaj Party failed to adjacent unfastened its relationship successful assembly elections. The examination with Prashant Kishor is instructive successful different way. Kishor’s Bihar propulsion aimed to make an alternate governmental abstraction but struggled to construe visibility into votes astatine scale. If TVK’s show remains successful the little scope of projections, it whitethorn inactive win successful altering ballot shares and aboriginal alignments, without instantly challenging for power.So, is Vijay the adjacent outsider who tin person momentum into mandate, arsenic Kejriwal erstwhile did? Or volition helium neglect to marque immoderate impact, similar Kishor’s aboriginal governmental foray?The reply volition lone go wide connected May 4.
