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Gold and metallic person marked gains of astir 10% and 5% year-to-date. Should you bargain golden this Akshaya Tritiya? We asked 5 experts: (AI image)
Gold buying successful India is not conscionable astir its harmless haven presumption - it is traditionally considered auspicious. Festivals crossed the twelvemonth go large days connected which golden buying peaks. According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, the returns implicit the past fewer years bespeak that some carnal golden and MCX golden person remained structurally bullish, particularly during periods of planetary uncertainty, ostentation spikes, and currency volatility.Gold and metallic prices person rallied powerfully successful the past fewer years, reaching caller peaks successful January this year. However, since past prices of some the precious metals person travel down. More recently, the harmless haven presumption of golden came nether question with prices crashing since the commencement of the US-Iran war. According to a caller study by Motilal Oswal Wealth Management, from a humanities perspective, Akshaya Tritiya has consistently proven to beryllium a favourable introduction constituent for semipermanent golden investors. Gold and metallic person marked gains of astir 10% and 5% year-to-date. Respectively. Gold prices person dropped from their caller highs, but are inactive connected the higher side. In this context, should you bargain golden this Akshaya Tritiya? We asked 5 experts - but earlier that let’s instrumentality a look astatine however golden has fared compared to different plus classes similar metallic and equities successful the past 10 years.
Akshaya Tritiya to Akshaya Tritiya: How Gold, Silver, Sensex Returns Compare
Experts enactment that metallic has outperformed golden & Indian equities since past Akshaya Tritiya.
It has delivered stellar, multibagger returns of astir 158–160 % since the past Akshaya Tritiya (April 30, 2025), importantly outperforming gold's astir 60% gain. Silver prices person surged from conscionable beneath Rs 1 lakh per kg during past Akshaya Tritiya to astir Rs 2.50 lakh per kg by mid-April 2026, driven by precocious concern request and concern inflows. Not lone that, the achromatic metallic was seen rising to a precocious of implicit Rs 4.25 lakh per kg successful futures declaration during the archetypal period of the existent year!
On the different hand, banal markets person bled successful the past twelvemonth owed to overseas outflows, rupee depreciation and a big of different factors. BSE Sensex little since past Akshaya Tritiya close. The semipermanent information reveals a much telling tale. Over the past 10 years, golden has consistently delivered affirmative returns from 1 Akshaya Tritiya to another, with 2017 being an objection with antagonistic returns. On an average, implicit the past 10 years golden has fixed astir 19% returns, portion Sensex has delivered 13%, and metallic 27%.
However, it is besides noteworthy to spot that determination are respective periods of azygous digit returns, and others of exceptional performance, similar past year, which rise the average. On the different hand, Sensex has delivered much accordant returns.What should your concern determination connected Akshaya Tritiya look like? Here’s what 5 experts say:Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst - Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock BrokersLooking ahead, the outlook for golden this Akshaya Tritiya remains positive, but investors should attack it with a semipermanent and balanced mindset alternatively than expecting speedy gains.
This is due to the fact that golden is presently facing absorption from a fewer factors.Disruptions to vigor supplies are apt to persist beyond the ongoing conflict, keeping ostentation risks elevated. This could propulsion cardinal banks toward tighter monetary policy, starring to higher enslaved yields, which successful crook reduces the entreaty of gold, arsenic it does not connection immoderate involvement income. At the aforesaid time, immoderate cardinal enactment factors for golden whitethorn weaken successful the adjacent term. Although cardinal banks—especially the People’s Bank of China person been beardown buyers, purchases typically dilatory successful the 2nd quarter. Over the past 20 years, spot golden has risen by an mean of 1.2% successful Q2, compared to 5.2%, 2.9%, and 2.5% successful Q1, Q3, and Q4, respectively. While respective planetary banks stay affirmative connected golden implicit the agelong term, near-term gains whitethorn stay capped.That said, the broader structural drivers supporting gold, specified arsenic cardinal slope buying, planetary uncertainties, and concerns astir ostentation and currency stableness stay firmly successful place.
Over the adjacent year, golden prices are expected to enactment beardown but with important volatility. Akshaya Tritiya presents a bully accidental to gradually commencement accumulating golden arsenic portion of a semipermanent strategy but it is advisable to accumulate the aforesaid successful 3-4 tranches connected each dip of 3-4%.MCX golden has the imaginable to emergence by 18–20% till the adjacent Akshay Tritiya (CMP: Rs 153,100 per 10 gm). On the downside, prices whitethorn find a level astir ₹1,30,000, portion ₹1,65,000 acts arsenic an contiguous absorption level.
A sustained determination supra this could unfastened the way toward ₹1,85,000. Internationally, COMEX golden is expected to commercialized successful the scope of $4,000 to $5,750 per ounce.
Praveen Singh, Head of Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan
- Just 8 weeks ago, markets were pricing successful much than 2 complaint cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, the escalation of the Iran struggle has upended this narrative. A crisp surge successful crude lipid and substance prices has reignited inflationary pressures, pushing ostentation expectations higher. Central banks person consequently turned much vigilant, with adjacent the Bank of England and the European Central Bank present being perceived arsenic imaginable complaint hikers - a crisp U-turn from the ratecut expectations prevailing lone a fewer weeks ago.
- A stronger US dollar and tighter liquidity conditions amid elevated lipid prices person besides prompted immoderate sovereign golden selling and swap activity. Meanwhile, US labour marketplace information remains resilient. This information should alleviate the Federal Reserve’s concerns astir labour marketplace weakness, astatine slightest successful the adjacent term.
- Gold whitethorn acquisition periods of volatility and further short-term corrections, arsenic cardinal banks stay focused connected containing ostentation stemming from Middle East tensions that person pushed carnal crude lipid prices to grounds highs. However, the medium-to-long word outlook for golden remains constructive implicit 2026–27, arsenic structural fundamentals proceed to supply beardown support.
- Ongoing de-dollarization driven by geopolitical friction and sanctions, the load of planetary sovereign indebtedness estimated astatine astir $340 trillion, and the increasing vulnerability of authorities bonds nether fiscal dominance and ostentation hazard are almighty tailwinds for some golden and silver. Over time, sustained precocious lipid prices are apt to dilatory planetary economical growth, which could yet revive ratecut expectations. Any maturation slowdown oregon recession would further deteriorate debt-to-GDP ratios, reinforcing the strategical entreaty of precious metals.
- Overall, the outlook for golden remains powerfully constructive, with prices expected to determination toward the $6,000–$6,500 scope implicit the adjacent year, supported by macro uncertainty, fiscal stress, and structural shifts successful the planetary monetary system.
Maneesh Sharma, Commodity & Currency ExpertGold short-term outlook: The diminution successful golden prices since the onset of geopolitics betwixt US–Iran, was seen arsenic a impermanent effect to a liquidity daze arsenic cardinal slope buying was seen slowing down successful Feb–March period.
Gold & Silver ETFs successful India besides witnessed outflows successful Feb-Mar play weighing connected sentiments for precious metals. Meanwhile, a beardown cardinal backdrop inactive persists for the yellowish metallic successful the coming years driven by macroeconomic uncertainties. For the coming months though, the golden outlook remains highly delicate to shifts successful US Federal involvement complaint argumentation outlook amid developments astir the US–Iran conflict.
Any rallies successful planetary equities could again support upside constricted successful the adjacent term.Historically during May–June period, golden has delivered seasonally anemic performance connected an mean successful the past 50 years timeframe, often marking a consolidation play pursuing outpouring peaks. However, the second fractional of the twelvemonth is inactive expected to stay affirmative fixed concerns of a slowdown successful economical maturation arsenic projected by the IMF successful its latest satellite economical outlook released successful the existent week. Should you bargain it? What’s the outlook? One should see investing successful golden & metallic successful a portfolio of assets with the concern premix remaining astatine astir 60:40 with 40% being allocated to silver. However investing caller into golden requires a staggered attack starting this Akshaya Tritiya arsenic dips of 5-10% successful prices successful the coming months should beryllium seen arsenic an accidental to accumulate the yellowish metal. Overall returns of 18– 25% successful golden tin inactive beryllium expected till adjacent Akshaya Tritiya.Silver, having outperformed golden since past Akshaya Tritiya, is inactive seen arsenic a metallic with higher imaginable for returns but with sizeable volatility arsenic the metallic marketplace is heading for a sixth twelvemonth of structural shortage successful 2026.
Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP SecuritiesBuying golden connected Akshaya Tritiya carries some taste value and fiscal logic, particularly for semipermanent wealthiness protection.
However, existent terms levels are elevated aft a crisp rally. Hence, a staggered accumulation strategy is much prudent alternatively than assertive lump-sum buying.1-Year Outlook & Strategy• Approach: Buy successful tiny quantities (SIP / staggered buying)• Better Accumulation Zone: Near ₹1,30,000 (on corrections)• 1-Year Outlook: Positive bias supported by * Geopolitical uncertainty * Inflation risks * Central slope buying * Currency volatilityTarget Levels (1 Year)• Upside Target: ₹1,75,000 – ₹1,85,000Gold is expected to stay successful a semipermanent uptrend, though interim volatility and corrections should beryllium expected.
Gold remains a halfway portfolio hedge, but astatine existent elevated levels, investors should absorption connected disciplined accumulation alternatively than chasing prices, utilizing dips arsenic opportunities.
Kaveri More, Commodity Analyst, Commodity Technical Research astatine Choice BrokingYes, As the bullion marketplace remains heavy influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty, planetary maturation concerns, and central‑bank actions, with 3 cardinal drivers lasting retired ongoing geopolitical tensions successful the Middle East (Iran-US), China‑Taiwan, and the Russia‑Ukraine conflict, softening maturation successful Europe and parts of Asia, and shifting monetary‑policy expectations, particularly from the US Federal Reserve.Given these dynamics, buying golden this Akshaya Tritiya inactive makes consciousness but not successful a lump‑sum, at‑peak manner. A staggered, “buy‑on‑dips” strategy astir cardinal enactment zones amended align with a one‑year skyline and reduces the hazard of entering adjacent grounds highs. Reasonable people bands implicit the adjacent 12 months could beryllium Rs 169000--180000 for, with enactment portion adjacent Rs 146800—136300.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views connected the banal market, different plus classes oregon idiosyncratic concern absorption tips fixed by experts are their own. These opinions bash not correspond the views of The Times of India)
