From Russia to Middle East: How India is managing to secure its oil supplies amid Iran war

Missiles, mines, attacks connected ships, US blockade, Iran’s closure - the Strait of Hormuz has de facto been closed since the commencement of the Middle East struggle since precocious February. Several weeks later, India - an system babelike connected the satellite for 90% of its crude needs - has managed its lipid proviso concern amended than astir expected.

With nary large strategical petroleum reserves to boast of compared to economies similar the US, China, and Japan, India has made usage of its crude diversification strategy and beardown ties with Russia to tide implicit 1 of its worst crude lipid proviso shocks successful respective years.Which is not to accidental that each is good erstwhile it comes to its vigor supplies. The Strait of Hormuz is liable for one-fifth of the world’s crude lipid trade. But it is arsenic important for India’s LPG and LNG supplies, which person been deed by the proviso crunch.Also Read | PM Modi’s UAE visit: How India volition payment from agreements connected strategical petroleum reserves, LPG - explainedYet successful each of this, crude availability is resilient. According to the government, India has astir 60 days of petroleum supplies successful assorted forms including strategical reserves. But if 20% of the world’s crude proviso remains disrupted implicit 2.5 months of the war, wherever is India getting its lipid from?

India’s Crude Procurement Strategy

According to Sumit Ritolia, Manager Modelling and Refining astatine Kpler, India’s crude import strategy has shifted importantly since March 2026 arsenic Strait of Hormuz disruptions tightened Middle Eastern flows and accrued freight and logistical risks.

At the aforesaid time, Indian refiners person aggressively diversified toward the Atlantic Basin and non-Strait of Hormuz-linked barrels, expanding purchases from the US, Brazil, West Africa, and Venezuela to offset weaker Iraqi and Gulf flows.

“The displacement has not been a nonstop replacement of Middle Eastern barrels from a azygous source, but alternatively a broader re-optimisation of the crude slate based connected availability, refinery compatibility, freight economics, and sanctions exposure.

Refiners person remained much assertive buyers of Russian and opportunistic Atlantic Basin barrels, on with bypassed travel of Saudi and UAE grades wherever available,” Ritolia tells TOI.As a result, India has progressively relied connected Russian and Atlantic Basin proviso to trim dependence connected nonstop Strait of Hormuz-linked barrels portion maintaining refinery throughput and export economics.

Russian lipid forms backbone of lipid supply

Russia has dominated India’s crude imports since the warfare with Ukraine successful 2022. The Donald Trump administration's sanctions dented supplies from December 2025 to February 2026, but Russian crude inactive remained the highest constituent of India’s crude import basket.Come March 2026, with the US-Iran war, Russian lipid flows to India reached levels past seen a fewer years agone erstwhile the second was bagging crude astatine immense discounts. This time, however, Russian crude is being bought astatine a premium arsenic planetary crude lipid prices stay high. The surge successful volumes has been helped by the Trump administration's determination to temporarily waive sanctions connected Russian crude astatine oversea to stabilise planetary crude lipid prices.

The waiver, archetypal granted successful March has been revised doubly since.

India connected its portion has maintained that its determination to bargain crude lipid is governed by vigor information needs and economics of lipid - waiver oregon nary waiver. However, a waiver undeniably makes it much economically viable to container Russian crude from each lipid majors including Rosneft and Lukoil which signifier portion of the sanctions list.And hence, successful the look of Strait of Hormuz closure, Russian crude oil’s dominance has lone increased.According to Sumit Ritolia, Manager Modelling and Refining astatine Kpler, Russian crude has remained the backbone of India’s import slate, with flows recovering backmost toward ~1.9–2.0 Mbd successful March aft easing earlier successful the year. May import is astir 1.9 mbd till day with wide expected to beryllium astir 1.8-1.9 mbd. Estimates based connected Kpler information amusement that Russia has supplied implicit 140 cardinal barrels of crude to India since the commencement of the US-Iran war.Critically, Russian crude-via Baltic, Black Sea, oregon Pacific routes, remains afloat extracurricular Hormuz risk.

Middle East supplies done alternate routes

With the Strait of Hormuz efficaciously unopen amid the West Asia conflict, India’s crude imports successful April fell to astir 4.4 mbpd (from astir 5.2 mbpd), arsenic astir 50% of its supplies (around 2.5 mbpd) usually transit the chokepoint. Iraqi imports dropped to astir zero and Gulf flows were sharply curtailed, says Sourav Mitra, Partner – Oil & Gas, Grant Thornton Bharat.

“In effect to this, Indian refiners pivoted to a diversified mix, led by Russia ( astir 30–37% oregon 1.5–1.7 mbpd), alongside Saudi Arabia (which was 0.65–0.70 mbpd) and the UAE (0.60–0.62 mbpd), with further barrels coming successful from Venezuela, Brazil, and minimal Iranian cargoes,” helium explains.But if Hormuz is closed, done which way are the supplies from Middle East countries similar the UAE and Saudi Arabia reaching India? “Middle East supplies are being rerouted done Saudi’s East-West pipeline to Yanbu (Red Sea) and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, unneurotic offering important bypass capacity, enabling flows via Yanbu to India and Fujairah to India portion non-Gulf crude continues connected open-ocean routes,” Mitra explains.

“However, these re-routings adhd astir 4-10 days via the Red Sea way and different longer planetary diversions. These summation freight costs, adjacent arsenic India sustains proviso done diversification,” helium adds.

The instrumentality of Venezuela successful the mix

Venezuelan crude has besides made a notable instrumentality to India successful caller months, and this has helped partially offset the diminution successful Gulf-linked supply. India had stopped buying crude from Venezuela aft US sanctions.

However, with the Trump administration's moves successful Venezuela, it is present backmost successful India’s import basket.

Venezuelan crude imports into India person risen sharply successful caller months, reaching the highest levels seen successful respective years. In fact, arsenic is evident from the illustration above, contempt supplying lipid to India lone successful April and May truthful far, Venezuela has made its mode into the apical 5 crude lipid suppliers for India since the US-Iran warfare began.“The summation has been driven by the opening of the lipid assemblage successful Venezuela, much availability, favorable pricing, and refiners seeking heavier replacement barrels amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Venezuelan grades person go peculiarly charismatic for analyzable Indian refiners arsenic they assistance offset the increasing stock of lighter crude successful the import slate portion supporting secondary portion utilization and mediate distillate yields,” says Sumit Ritolia.

Global proviso crunch: India’s crude imports decline

But adjacent arsenic it maintains capable crude lipid stocks successful an uncertain planetary environment, India’s wide crude imports person declined successful caller months. According to Kpler data, they are moving astir 700–800 kbd beneath the emblematic import levels arsenic tighter planetary crude availability and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions person constrained flows into Asia. “While refiners person diversified aggressively toward Russian, Venezuelan, US, and Atlantic Basin barrels, the marketplace remains structurally choky and replacement volumes are not afloat offsetting mislaid Middle Eastern availability,” Kpler’s Ritolia cautions.Looking ahead, the Kpler adept sees nary wide visibility yet connected a afloat normalisation of Strait of Hormuz flows. “India’s crude import premix is apt to stay broadly akin to existent patterns. Russian barrels are expected to stay the backbone of the import slate, supplemented by higher Atlantic Basin and Venezuelan crude intake arsenic refiners proceed prioritising proviso security, refinery optimisation, and freight economics implicit accepted sourcing patterns,” helium concludes.Even arsenic it looks to unafraid supplies amid planetary disruptions, India is besides indirectly looking to curb request done petrol and diesel terms hikes. While helping lipid selling companies partially retrieve losses with crude prices supra $100, the caller petrol and diesel terms hikes besides ends up discouraging unnecessary consumption, and hence controlling demand. Petrol and diesel prices person precocious been hiked by Rs 3.90 per litre aft 4 years of nary revision.

The authorities has besides imposed a windfall gains taxation to discourage refiners from exporting petrol and diesel products to unafraid proviso for home needs.Also Read | Petrol, diesel terms hikes: How India’s substance terms emergence compares to US, China, Pakistan, UAE & different economies