Fresh Bay of Bengal systems may delay monsoon retreat, says IMD

PUNE: The southwest monsoon's exit from cardinal India whitethorn not hap connected docket this year, with caller upwind systems implicit the Bay of Bengal apt to prolong rainfall successful Maharashtra and parts of Central India.The latest Extended Range Forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) connected Thursday indicated a renewed spell betwixt Sept 25 and Oct 1, keeping ample parts of cardinal and adjacent northwest India wetter than mean during what is usually the season's last phase."Based connected the Extended Range Forecast, a debased unit country is apt to signifier implicit northwest and adjoining cardinal India during the archetypal fractional of the week opening Sept 22.

There is likelihood of reasonably wide to wide rainfall with isolated dense to precise dense falls implicit astir parts of cardinal and northbound Peninsular India (especially Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra) chiefly during the archetypal fractional of the week," a elder IMD authoritative said."Rainfall enactment during that play is apt to beryllium supra mean implicit cardinal and peninsular India and mean to supra mean implicit astir parts of northwest and eastbound India," helium said.

Private forecaster Skymet Weather Services president G P Sharma said aggregate upwind systems were expected to way into the Bay of Bengal done the remainder of the month, sustaining monsoon enactment crossed parts of eastern, cardinal and occidental India. "Such back-to-back developments could propulsion the withdrawal beyond the mean timeline," helium said.Sharma besides said a well-marked cyclonic circulation implicit Myanmar's Arakan seashore was apt to germinate into a debased unit country implicit North Bay of Bengal by Sunday.

He said: "Another circulation whitethorn soon follow, perchance merging with the archetypal to signifier a stronger system. If this plays out, the combined strategy could thrust rains heavy into cardinal and occidental India and adjacent revive showers successful areas wherever the monsoon has receded.

"Such a system, Sharma said, could determination inland implicit Odisha and northbound Andhra Pradesh earlier travelling done cardinal India. "It is apt to bring reasonably wide rainfall implicit Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and adjacent southbound Gujarat, with immoderate dense spells connected Sept 27 and 28. Mumbai and different parts of Madhya Maharashtra and Vidarbha could besides get rainfall astatine that time." He said these upwind features "are portion of a larger concatenation of circulations" travelling from the Pacific crossed Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar earlier re-emerging successful the Bay.